Seven of Ethiopia’s most powerful armed factions announced a formal alliance on Sunday
aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government — a move that could plunge
Africa’s second most populous country back into full-scale war and that has diplomats across
the continent scrambling to respond by Monday morning.
The coalition, calling itself the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS), was
formally unveiled in a joint statement that has been circulating since late Sunday and has been
landing on the desks of African Union officials and Western envoys throughout the overnight
hours.
The alliance’s roster is a who’s-who of Ethiopia’s armed opposition. It includes the Amhara Fano
National Movement, whose fighters have battled federal troops across the northern highlands
for two years; the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the former ruling party that fought
the devastating 2020–2022 civil war; and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which controls
swathes of the country’s largest region. Four smaller groups round out the front: the Ogaden
National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul
Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
In its statement, EPFAS accuses Abiy’s administration of imposing ‘dictatorial rule’ that has
pushed Ethiopia toward disintegration. The alliance is demanding an immediate transitional
government guided by a joint charter, an end to what it calls ‘ethnic wars,’ and a national
dialogue to redraw the country’s political settlement.
Officials familiar with the coalition’s formation say leaders had been in quiet talks for roughly a
year, brokered in part by exiled diaspora figures and mediated in third countries. The public
unveiling now — days after fresh clashes in Tigray shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace deal —
suggests the groups believe the window for a coordinated push has opened.
The Abiy government has not yet issued a formal response, but a senior official in the prime
minister’s office dismissed the alliance overnight as ‘a marriage of losers’ and warned that any
armed action would be met with ‘the full force of the state.’ State broadcaster ETV made no
mention of the announcement in its morning bulletins — a silence critics called telling.
For Ethiopians, the news lands on already fragile ground. The 2020–2022 war in Tigray killed
hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. A parallel insurgency in Amhara has left much of
the region under contested control. In Oromia, OLA militants have made steady gains, and longsimmering disputes in Benishangul-Gumuz have hardened along ethnic lines. Analysts say
EPFAS’s unified command structure — if it holds — would be the most serious challenge to
Addis Ababa since the fall of the Derg regime in 1991.
The regional implications are immediate. Ethiopia sits at the heart of the Horn of Africa, borders
seven countries, hosts the AU headquarters, and anchors regional security architecture from
Sudan to Somalia. Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia have been quietly briefing their own
security councils since the statement broke, according to two diplomats speaking on condition
of anonymity.
The African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa, faces a particularly awkward moment. AU
Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has repeatedly praised Abiy’s government as a stabilizing
force. A spokesperson said only that the AU ‘is monitoring the situation and calls on all parties
to prioritize dialogue.’
Western capitals are also on alert. Washington and Brussels have poured billions into Ethiopian
development and security cooperation over the past decade. A senior EU official, speaking
Monday morning, called EPFAS’s announcement ‘a serious escalation that requires an urgent
diplomatic response’ and hinted at emergency consultations later this week.
For ordinary Ethiopians, the fear is that a fragile calm is ending. Food prices in Addis Ababa
jumped overnight on rumors. Cross-border trade with Kenya slowed at the Moyale checkpoint.
Airlines were reviewing overflight risks. And in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, civilians who lived
through the last war are once again asking the question no one wants answered: how bad, this
time, will it get?
