Polling stations opened across England, Scotland and Wales at 7 a.m. local time on
Thursday in a sweeping set of local and devolved elections that political analysts are
already framing as the harshest verdict yet on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour
government.
Around 5,000 council seats are on the ballot, alongside elections to the Welsh Senedd
and the Scottish Parliament. Polls close at 10 p.m. UK time, with a handful of councils
counting overnight and the bulk of results expected on Friday afternoon.
What makes this morning’s vote remarkable is not just the scale, but the trajectory.
Independent forecasts from Britain Elects suggest Labour could shed up to two-thirds of
the councillors it is defending. Reform UK, the populist insurgent party, is projected to
gain more than 1,300 seats, multiplying its base of three councillors into a force of more
than 2,300. The Greens are forecast to add upwards of 555 seats.
If those projections hold, Reform is on course to seize control of county councils in
Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk, signaling a dramatic political realignment in England’s rural
heartlands and a serious challenge to the two-party system that has dominated British
politics for a century.
The economy is the inescapable backdrop. Voters arriving at the polls cited soaring
food prices, stalled wage growth and the cost of energy as their top concerns.
Immigration and the perception that Westminster has lost control of the borders also
continue to dominate doorstep conversations, an issue Reform has weaponized
relentlessly.
Starmer, who swept to power less than two years ago on a promise of stability and
competence after years of Conservative turmoil, now faces the prospect of watching his
party haemorrhage councillors at exactly the moment he had hoped to be consolidating
power. Inside Labour, allies are already preparing for a difficult Friday morning, with
senior figures privately conceding that significant losses are baked in.
The Conservatives, still recovering from their bruising 2024 defeat, are not expected to
be rescued by the chaos. Polls suggest the centre-right vote is splitting between
traditional Tories and Reform, leaving Kemi Badenoch’s party squeezed and unable to
capitalise on Labour’s troubles.
Across the Welsh Senedd and the Scottish Parliament, the picture is similarly volatile. In
Wales, Labour faces fresh challenges from Plaid Cymru and Reform, while in Scotland
the SNP is bracing for tighter races than usual as voters punish incumbents.
Officials from the Electoral Commission urged voters to bring a valid form of photo ID,
the requirement that has tripped up tens of thousands of would-be voters in previous
cycles. Turnout in local elections is historically low, hovering around 30 percent, but
party strategists on all sides say they expect a higher figure this year, fuelled by anger
rather than enthusiasm.
By Friday lunchtime, Starmer will know whether his Downing Street remains a bridge to
a 2029 general election or has become a holding pen for a prime minister already losing
control of his own party. Either way, today’s vote is reshaping British politics in real time.
Reform leader Nigel Farage spent the final 24 hours barnstorming Essex and the East
Midlands, predicting a result that would, in his words, ‘break the duopoly.’ Green coleader Adrian Ramsay focused on university towns and inner-London boroughs, where
the cost of living and Gaza policy continue to drive defections from Labour.
Watch the council declarations. Watch which towers fall first. By Saturday, the maps of
British politics could look fundamentally different from the one Britons woke up to on
Thursday morning.
