Nigeria is a pressure cooker and the lid is rattling. Nearly three years into President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, the convergence of skyrocketing fuel prices, deepening poverty, worsening insecurity, and an increasingly vocal opposition is creating the most volatile political environment the country has seen since the 2023 elections.
The numbers tell a brutal story. Fuel prices have surged by roughly 500 percent since Tinubu took office in May 2023, climbing from about 255 naira per litre to between 1,200 and 1,500 naira at stations across the country. The removal of the decades-old fuel subsidy Tinubu’s signature economic policy was supposed to free up government revenue and attract investment. Instead, it has unleashed a cost-of-living crisis that has pushed Nigeria’s poverty rate to 63 percent, up from around 50 percent before the subsidy removal.
The Israel-Iran conflict has made things worse. Global oil price disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel costs even higher, despite Nigeria being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers. The cruel irony is not lost on Nigerians: their country pumps oil but cannot refine enough for its own people, leaving them exposed to global price shocks.
The opposition is sharpening its attacks. The Peoples Democratic Party has seized on Nigeria’s ranking in the latest Global Terrorism Index 2026 to accuse the Tinubu government of failing to protect citizens, describing the administration as being responsible for worsening insecurity. The phrase that has resonated most on social media is the PDP’s accusation that the government is “dancing on blood” while Nigerians suffer.
The African Democratic Congress, another opposition party, has pushed back against APC claims that it is inciting citizens. The ADC argues it is simply giving voice to millions who have been plunged into poverty. Meanwhile, even within Tinubu’s own APC, cracks are showing. A prominent party chieftain in Osun State publicly called on the president to intervene in the power crisis and rising fuel costs, a rare public rebuke from within the ruling party.
Security remains a festering wound. In January 2026, more than 160 worshippers were abducted in a single incident. In February, an armed group attacked two villages in Kwara State, killing over 160 people. In early March, suspected militants attacked the town of Ngoshe in Borno State, reportedly abducting more than 300 civilians, including women and children. These are not isolated events they are part of a pattern of escalating violence that spans from the Boko Haram-afflicted northeast to bandit-ridden northwest and the Middle Belt’s intercommunal conflicts.
The political landscape is shifting beneath Tinubu’s feet. Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State defected from the PDP to the APC in March 2026, a move that signals the familiar pre-election horse-trading as 2027 approaches. But defections alone will not solve the administration’s credibility problem. Campaign-style movements are already emerging, and political commentators note that Tinubu has been conspicuously quiet at a time when Nigerians desperately want to hear from their president.
The power crisis has become politically explosive. With the national grid collapsing repeatedly and generation dropping to 3,940 megawatts in March 2026, Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu was forced to publicly apologize and promise improvements within two weeks. But promises ring hollow when they follow years of similar assurances. Gas suppliers are threatening to halt deliveries over 3.3 trillion naira in unpaid debts, which could push the power situation from bad to catastrophic.
Nigeria’s democratic space is also under scrutiny. Observers warn that the weakness and fragmentation of opposition parties, combined with the ruling party’s consolidation of power, is shrinking the room for meaningful political competition ahead of the 2027 general elections. A healthy democracy requires a strong opposition, and Nigeria’s appears to be struggling.
The question hanging over the country is whether the Tinubu administration can deliver tangible improvements before public patience runs out entirely. The economic reforms were always going to be painful but the promise was that the pain would be temporary. Nearly three years on, for most Nigerians, it has only gotten worse. Something has to give. And with 2027 on the horizon, the clock is ticking.
